WHO TAKES OVER SADC CHAIRMANSHIP IF A COUP IS CONFIRMED IN MADAGASCAR
BY RONALD MAKUSHA
What the current situation is
During the 45th SADC Summit held on August 17, 2025, in Antananarivo, Madagascar, President Andry Rajoelina took over the rotating chairmanship of SADC, following Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe.
The SADC Treaty stipulates that the chair position rotates each year among member states.
There is also a Troika arrangement (Chair, Incoming Chair, Outgoing Chair) that ensures continuity in policy and decision-making between annual summits.
Presently, Madagascar holds the Chair position. What might occur if a coup takes place in the chair country?
Should Madagascar encounter a coup, SADC may consider various potential courses of action, depending on how events unfold. Several key factors will be:
Whether the coup is acknowledged de facto (control by military/government).
Whether other SADC members view the constitutional order as being violated.
Whether the new regime seeks legitimacy (through elections or international recognition).
The speed and decisiveness of SADC and its member states in their response (condemning, suspending, mediating, etc.).
Here are some possible scenarios:
Madagascar retains the Chair (de jure) despite the coup.
If the new regime in Madagascar maintains control, is not immediately overthrown, and there is no collective decision by SADC to suspend or replace it, Madagascar may continue to hold the Chair role. Nonetheless, their legitimacy might face challenges (internally and externally). SADC may encourage dialogue or a return to constitutional order.
SADC suspends Madagascar from the Chair.
If the coup is perceived as a breach of constitutional order, SADC could choose (through consensus or near-consensus) to suspend Madagascar’s Chairmanship. This is a precedent observed in African regional organizations when member states face unconstitutional changes in government.
Interim chair appointed by the Incoming Chair or Outgoing Chair.
Due to the Troika system, either the Incoming Chair (who was next in line) or the Outgoing Chair (the one who recently transferred the position) may act as interim or “caretaker” to guide SADC until stability or new elections are achieved.
In this scenario, identifying the Incoming Chair would aid in forecasting the next steps.
Emergency or special summit convened to determine a new chair.
SADC might call for an emergency meeting of Heads of State to select a replacement or confirm a temporary chair. Internal and external pressures would likely prompt member states to ensure there is a credible and constitutional individual leading the chair.
Who is likely to take over if suspension occurs.
The Incoming Chair according to the regular rotation would be the most logical option. SADC’s structure suggests that the next designated president in the chairmanship rotation would take over if the current chair cannot continue. Knowing which country’s president is next would identify the primary candidate.
The Outgoing Chair could also serve as interim if the Incoming Chair is unprepared or if there is a lack of consensus.
Alternatively, a member country with diplomatic influence and widespread respect across SADC might be chosen for interim leadership, especially a regional power such as South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, or others, depending on the existing geopolitical dynamics, if supported by the Troika structure.
Current incoming / outgoing
According to the most up-to-date information:
Outgoing Chair: Zimbabwe (Mnangagwa) (recently transferred in August 2025).
Current Chair: Madagascar (Andry Rajoelina) effective from August 2025.
Incoming Chair: South Africa (Cyril Ramaphosa) is designated as the incoming Chairperson of SADC, according to SADC sources.
Thus, if Madagascar can no longer fulfill its role (e.g., due to a coup), it is most likely that South Africa (or whoever is named as the incoming chair) would take over, either right away or following an emergency meeting, to assume the responsibilities of the SADC chair.
SADC has the way to handle it’s affairs.